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2016 ; 67
(ä): 75-93
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
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English Wikipedia
From complex questionnaire and interviewing data to intelligent Bayesian network
models for medical decision support
#MMPMID26830286
Constantinou AC
; Fenton N
; Marsh W
; Radlinski L
Artif Intell Med
2016[Feb]; 67
(ä): 75-93
PMID26830286
show ga
OBJECTIVES: (1) To develop a rigorous and repeatable method for building
effective Bayesian network (BN) models for medical decision support from complex,
unstructured and incomplete patient questionnaires and interviews that inevitably
contain examples of repetitive, redundant and contradictory responses; (2) To
exploit expert knowledge in the BN development since further data acquisition is
usually not possible; (3) To ensure the BN model can be used for interventional
analysis; (4) To demonstrate why using data alone to learn the model structure
and parameters is often unsatisfactory even when extensive data is available.
METHOD: The method is based on applying a range of recent BN developments
targeted at helping experts build BNs given limited data. While most of the
components of the method are based on established work, its novelty is that it
provides a rigorous consolidated and generalised framework that addresses the
whole life-cycle of BN model development. The method is based on two original and
recent validated BN models in forensic psychiatry, known as DSVM-MSS and DSVM-P.
RESULTS: When employed with the same datasets, the DSVM-MSS demonstrated
competitive to superior predictive performance (AUC scores 0.708 and 0.797)
against the state-of-the-art (AUC scores ranging from 0.527 to 0.705), and the
DSVM-P demonstrated superior predictive performance (cross-validated AUC score of
0.78) against the state-of-the-art (AUC scores ranging from 0.665 to 0.717). More
importantly, the resulting models go beyond improving predictive accuracy and
into usefulness for risk management purposes through intervention, and enhanced
decision support in terms of answering complex clinical questions that are based
on unobserved evidence. CONCLUSIONS: This development process is applicable to
any application domain which involves large-scale decision analysis based on such
complex information, rather than based on data with hard facts, and in
conjunction with the incorporation of expert knowledge for decision support via
intervention. The novelty extends to challenging the decision scientists to
reason about building models based on what information is really required for
inference, rather than based on what data is available and hence, forces decision
scientists to use available data in a much smarter way.