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.jpg): Failed to open stream: No such file or directory in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 117 PLoS+One
2016 ; 11
(3
): e0150891
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gab.com Text
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English Wikipedia
How Much Overtesting Is Needed to Safely Exclude a Diagnosis? A Different
Perspective on Triage Testing Using Bayes Theorem
#MMPMID26939066
Sikkens JJ
; Beekman DG
; Thijs A
; Bossuyt PM
; Smulders YM
PLoS One
2016[]; 11
(3
): e0150891
PMID26939066
show ga
Ruling out disease often requires expensive or potentially harmful confirmation
testing. For such testing, a less invasive triage test is often used.
Intuitively, few negative confirmatory tests suggest success of this approach.
However, if negative confirmation tests become too rare, too many disease cases
could have been missed. It is therefore important to know how many negative tests
are needed to safely exclude a diagnosis. We quantified this relationship using
Bayes' theorem, and applied this to the example of pulmonary embolism (PE), for
which triage is done with a Clinical Decision Rule (CDR) and D-dimer testing, and
CT-angiography (CTA) is the confirmation test. For a maximum proportion of missed
PEs of 1% in triage-negative patients, we calculate a 67% 'mandatory minimum'
proportion of negative CTA scans. To achieve this, the proportion of patients
with PE undergoing triage testing should be appropriately low, in this case no
higher than 24%. Pre-test probability, triage test characteristics, the
proportion of negative confirmation tests, and the number of missed diagnoses are
mathematically entangled. The proportion of negative confirmation tests--not too
high, but definitely not too low either--could be a quality benchmark for
diagnostic processes.