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2016 ; 2016
(ä): 6080814
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Predicting Renal Failure Progression in Chronic Kidney Disease Using Integrated
Intelligent Fuzzy Expert System
#MMPMID27022406
Norouzi J
; Yadollahpour A
; Mirbagheri SA
; Mazdeh MM
; Hosseini SA
Comput Math Methods Med
2016[]; 2016
(ä): 6080814
PMID27022406
show ga
BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a covert disease. Accurate prediction
of CKD progression over time is necessary for reducing its costs and mortality
rates. The present study proposes an adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS)
for predicting the renal failure timeframe of CKD based on real clinical data.
METHODS: This study used 10-year clinical records of newly diagnosed CKD
patients. The threshold value of 15?cc/kg/min/1.73?m(2) of glomerular filtration
rate (GFR) was used as the marker of renal failure. A Takagi-Sugeno type ANFIS
model was used to predict GFR values. Variables of age, sex, weight, underlying
diseases, diastolic blood pressure, creatinine, calcium, phosphorus, uric acid,
and GFR were initially selected for the predicting model. RESULTS: Weight,
diastolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus as underlying disease, and current
GFR(t) showed significant correlation with GFRs and were selected as the inputs
of model. The comparisons of the predicted values with the real data showed that
the ANFIS model could accurately estimate GFR variations in all sequential
periods (Normalized Mean Absolute Error lower than 5%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the
high uncertainties of human body and dynamic nature of CKD progression, our model
can accurately predict the GFR variations at long future periods.