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Atomic Bomb Survivors Life-Span Study: Insufficient Statistical Power to Select
Radiation Carcinogenesis Model
#MMPMID26673526
Socol Y
; Dobrzy?ski L
Dose Response
2015[Jan]; 13
(1
): ? PMID26673526
show ga
The atomic bomb survivors life-span study (LSS) is often claimed to support the
linear no-threshold hypothesis (LNTH) of radiation carcinogenesis. This paper
shows that this claim is baseless. The LSS data are equally or better described
by an s-shaped dependence on radiation exposure with a threshold of about 0.3
Sievert (Sv) and saturation level at about 1.5 Sv. A Monte-Carlo simulation of
possible LSS outcomes demonstrates that, given the weak statistical power, LSS
cannot provide support for LNTH. Even if the LNTH is used at low dose and dose
rates, its estimation of excess cancer mortality should be communicated as 2.5%
per Sv, i.e., an increase of cancer mortality from about 20% spontaneous
mortality to about 22.5% per Sv, which is about half of the usually cited value.
The impact of the "neutron discrepancy problem" - the apparent difference between
the calculated and measured values of neutron flux in Hiroshima - was studied and
found to be marginal. Major revision of the radiation risk assessment paradigm is
required.