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Choosing experiments to accelerate collective discovery #MMPMID26554009
Rzhetsky A; Foster JG; Foster IT; Evans JA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2015[Nov]; 112 (47): 14569-74 PMID26554009show ga
Scientists perform a tiny subset of all possible experiments. What characterizes the experiments they choose? And what are the consequences of those choices for the pace of scientific discovery? We model scientific knowledge as a network and science as a sequence of experiments designed to gradually uncover it. By analyzing millions of biomedical articles published over 30 y, we find that biomedical scientists pursue conservative research strategies exploring the local neighborhood of central, important molecules. Although such strategies probably serve scientific careers, we show that they slow scientific advance, especially in mature fields, where more risk and less redundant experimentation would accelerate discovery of the network. We also consider institutional arrangements that could help science pursue these more efficient strategies.