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2015 ; 112
(46
): 14218-23
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Transition to farming more likely for small, conservative groups with property
rights, but increased productivity is not essential
#MMPMID26578766
Gallagher EM
; Shennan SJ
; Thomas MG
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
2015[Nov]; 112
(46
): 14218-23
PMID26578766
show ga
Theories for the origins of agriculture are still debated, with a range of
different explanations offered. Computational models can be used to test these
theories and explore new hypotheses; Bowles and Choi [Bowles S, Choi J-K (2013)
Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(22):8830-8835] have developed one such model. Their
model shows the coevolution of farming and farming-friendly property rights, and
by including climate variability, replicates the timings for the emergence of
these events seen in the archaeological record. Because the processes modeled
occurred a long time ago, it can be difficult to justify exact parameter values;
hence, we propose a fitting to idealized outcomes (FIO) method to explore the
model's parameter space in more detail. We have replicated the model of Bowles
and Choi, and used the FIO method to identify complexities and interactions of
the model previously unidentified. Our results indicate that the key parameters
for the emergence of farming are group structuring, group size, conservatism, and
farming-friendly property rights (lending further support to Bowles and Choi's
original proposal). We also find that although advantageous, it is not essential
that farming productivity be greater than foraging productivity for farming to
emerge. In addition, we highlight how model behaviors can be missed when gauging
parameter sensitivity via a fix-all-but-one variation approach.
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