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2015 ; 49
(21
): 12879-87
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Predicting Honeybee Colony Failure: Using the BEEHAVE Model to Simulate Colony
Responses to Pesticides
#MMPMID26444386
Rumkee JC
; Becher MA
; Thorbek P
; Kennedy PJ
; Osborne JL
Environ Sci Technol
2015[Nov]; 49
(21
): 12879-87
PMID26444386
show ga
To simulate effects of pesticides on different honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) life
stages, we used the BEEHAVE model to explore how increased mortalities of larvae,
in-hive workers, and foragers, as well as reduced egg-laying rate, could impact
colony dynamics over multiple years. Stresses were applied for 30 days, both as
multiples of the modeled control mortality and as set percentage daily
mortalities to assess the sensitivity of the modeled colony both to small
fluctuations in mortality and periods of low to very high daily mortality. These
stresses simulate stylized exposure of the different life stages to nectar and
pollen contaminated with pesticide for 30 days. Increasing adult bee mortality
had a much greater impact on colony survival than mortality of bee larvae or
reduction in egg laying rate. Importantly, the seasonal timing of the imposed
mortality affected the magnitude of the impact at colony level. In line with the
LD50, we propose a new index of "lethal imposed stress": the LIS50 which
indicates the level of stress on individuals that results in 50% colony
mortality. This (or any LISx) is a comparative index for exploring the effects of
different stressors at colony level in model simulations. While colony failure is
not an acceptable protection goal, this index could be used to inform the setting
of future regulatory protection goals.