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2015 ; 14
(ä): 85
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Projections of temperature-attributable premature deaths in 209 U S cities using
a cluster-based Poisson approach
#MMPMID26537962
Schwartz JD
; Lee M
; Kinney PL
; Yang S
; Mills D
; Sarofim MC
; Jones R
; Streeter R
; Juliana AS
; Peers J
; Horton RM
Environ Health
2015[Nov]; 14
(ä): 85
PMID26537962
show ga
BACKGROUND: A warming climate will affect future temperature-attributable
premature deaths. This analysis is the first to project these deaths at a near
national scale for the United States using city and month-specific
temperature-mortality relationships. METHODS: We used Poisson regressions to
model temperature-attributable premature mortality as a function of daily average
temperature in 209 U.S. cities by month. We used climate data to group cities
into clusters and applied an Empirical Bayes adjustment to improve model
stability and calculate cluster-based month-specific temperature-mortality
functions. Using data from two climate models, we calculated future daily average
temperatures in each city under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0. Holding
population constant at 2010 levels, we combined the temperature data and
cluster-based temperature-mortality functions to project city-specific
temperature-attributable premature deaths for multiple future years which
correspond to a single reporting year. Results within the reporting periods are
then averaged to account for potential climate variability and reported as a
change from a 1990 baseline in the future reporting years of 2030, 2050 and 2100.
RESULTS: We found temperature-mortality relationships that vary by location and
time of year. In general, the largest mortality response during hotter months
(April - September) was in July in cities with cooler average conditions. The
largest mortality response during colder months (October-March) was at the
beginning (October) and end (March) of the period. Using data from two global
climate models, we projected a net increase in premature deaths, aggregated
across all 209 cities, in all future periods compared to 1990. However, the
magnitude and sign of the change varied by cluster and city. CONCLUSIONS: We
found increasing future premature deaths across the 209 modeled U.S. cities using
two climate model projections, based on constant temperature-mortality
relationships from 1997 to 2006 without any future adaptation. However, results
varied by location, with some locations showing net reductions in premature
temperature-attributable deaths with climate change.