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2015 ; 10
(11
): e0142163
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Psychiatric Hospital Bed Numbers and Prison Population Sizes in 26 European
Countries: A Critical Reconsideration of the Penrose Hypothesis
#MMPMID26529102
Blüml V
; Waldhör T
; Kapusta ND
; Vyssoki B
PLoS One
2015[]; 10
(11
): e0142163
PMID26529102
show ga
BACKGROUND: Recently, there has been a revived interest in the validity of the
Penrose hypothesis, which was originally postulated over 75 years ago. It
suggests an inverse relationship between the numbers of psychiatric hospital beds
and the sizes of prison population. This study aims to investigate the
association between psychiatric hospital beds and prison populations in a large
sample of 26 European countries between 1993 and 2011. METHODS: The association
between prison population sizes and numbers of psychiatric hospital beds was
assessed by means of Spearman correlations and modeled by a mixed random
coefficient regression model. Socioeconomic variables were considered as
covariates. Data were retrieved from Eurostat, the statistical office of the
European Union. OUTCOMES: Mean Spearman correlation coefficients between
psychiatric beds and prison population showed a significant negative association
(-0.35; p = <0.01). However, in the mixed regression model including
socioeconomic covariates there were no significant fixed parameter estimates.
Meanwhile, the covariance estimates for the random coefficients psychiatric beds
(?2 = 0.75, p = <0.01) and year (?2 = 0.0007, p = 0.03) yielded significant
results. INTERPRETATION: These findings do not support the general validity of
the Penrose hypothesis. Notably, the results of the mixed-model show a
significant variation in the magnitude and direction of the association of
psychiatric hospital bed numbers and the prison population sizes between
countries. In this sense, our results challenge the prevalent opinion that a
reduction of psychiatric beds subsequently leads to increasing incarcerations.
These findings also work against the potential stigmatization of individuals
suffering from mental disorders as criminals, which could be an unintentional
byproduct of the Penrose hypothesis.