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2015 ; 112
(41
): 12621-6
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Long-term reliability of the Athabasca River (Alberta, Canada) as the water
source for oil sands mining
#MMPMID26392554
Sauchyn DJ
; St-Jacques JM
; Luckman BH
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
2015[Oct]; 112
(41
): 12621-6
PMID26392554
show ga
Exploitation of the Alberta oil sands, the world's third-largest crude oil
reserve, requires fresh water from the Athabasca River, an allocation of 4.4% of
the mean annual flow. This allocation takes into account seasonal fluctuations
but not long-term climatic variability and change. This paper examines the
decadal-scale variability in river discharge in the Athabasca River Basin (ARB)
with (i) a generalized least-squares (GLS) regression analysis of the trend and
variability in gauged flow and (ii) a 900-y tree-ring reconstruction of the
water-year flow of the Athabasca River at Athabasca, Alberta. The GLS analysis
removes confounding transient trends related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) and Pacific North American mode (PNA). It shows long-term declining flows
throughout the ARB. The tree-ring record reveals a larger range of flows and
severity of hydrologic deficits than those captured by the instrumental records
that are the basis for surface water allocation. It includes periods of sustained
low flow of multiple decades in duration, suggesting the influence of the PDO and
PNA teleconnections. These results together demonstrate that low-frequency
variability must be considered in ARB water allocation, which has not been the
case. We show that the current and projected surface water allocations from the
Athabasca River for the exploitation of the Alberta oil sands are based on an
untenable assumption of the representativeness of the short instrumental record.