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2015 ; 15
(ä): 83
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Prediction of delayed graft function after kidney transplantation: comparison
between logistic regression and machine learning methods
#MMPMID26466993
Decruyenaere A
; Decruyenaere P
; Peeters P
; Vermassen F
; Dhaene T
; Couckuyt I
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak
2015[Oct]; 15
(ä): 83
PMID26466993
show ga
BACKGROUND: Predictive models for delayed graft function (DGF) after kidney
transplantation are usually developed using logistic regression. We want to
evaluate the value of machine learning methods in the prediction of DGF. METHODS:
497 kidney transplantations from deceased donors at the Ghent University Hospital
between 2005 and 2011 are included. A feature elimination procedure is applied to
determine the optimal number of features, resulting in 20 selected parameters (24
parameters after conversion to indicator parameters) out of 55 retrospectively
collected parameters. Subsequently, 9 distinct types of predictive models are
fitted using the reduced data set: logistic regression (LR), linear discriminant
analysis (LDA), quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), support vector machines
(SVMs; using linear, radial basis function and polynomial kernels), decision tree
(DT), random forest (RF), and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB). Performance of
the models is assessed by computing sensitivity, positive predictive values and
area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) after 10-fold
stratified cross-validation. AUROCs of the models are pairwise compared using
Wilcoxon signed-rank test. RESULTS: The observed incidence of DGF is 12.5 %. DT
is not able to discriminate between recipients with and without DGF (AUROC of
52.5 %) and is inferior to the other methods. SGB, RF and polynomial SVM are
mainly able to identify recipients without DGF (AUROC of 77.2, 73.9 and 79.8 %,
respectively) and only outperform DT. LDA, QDA, radial SVM and LR also have the
ability to identify recipients with DGF, resulting in higher discriminative
capacity (AUROC of 82.2, 79.6, 83.3 and 81.7 %, respectively), which outperforms
DT and RF. Linear SVM has the highest discriminative capacity (AUROC of 84.3 %),
outperforming each method, except for radial SVM, polynomial SVM and LDA.
However, it is the only method superior to LR. CONCLUSIONS: The discriminative
capacities of LDA, linear SVM, radial SVM and LR are the only ones above 80 %.
None of the pairwise AUROC comparisons between these models is statistically
significant, except linear SVM outperforming LR. Additionally, the sensitivity of
linear SVM to identify recipients with DGF is amongst the three highest of all
models. Due to both reasons, the authors believe that linear SVM is most
appropriate to predict DGF.