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2015 ; 3
(ä): e1262
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Prediction of junior faculty success in biomedical research: comparison of
metrics and effects of mentoring programs
#MMPMID26421238
von Bartheld CS
; Houmanfar R
; Candido A
PeerJ
2015[]; 3
(ä): e1262
PMID26421238
show ga
Measuring and predicting the success of junior faculty is of considerable
interest to faculty, academic institutions, funding agencies and faculty
development and mentoring programs. Various metrics have been proposed to
evaluate and predict research success and impact, such as the h-index, and
modifications of this index, but they have not been evaluated and validated
side-by-side in a rigorous empirical study. Our study provides a retrospective
analysis of how well bibliographic metrics and formulas (numbers of total, first-
and co-authored papers in the PubMed database, numbers of papers in high-impact
journals) would have predicted the success of biomedical investigators (n = 40)
affiliated with the University of Nevada, Reno, prior to, and after completion of
significant mentoring and research support (through funded Centers of Biomedical
Research Excellence, COBREs), or lack thereof (unfunded COBREs), in 2000-2014.
The h-index and similar indices had little prognostic value. Publishing as mid-
or even first author in only one high-impact journal was poorly correlated with
future success. Remarkably, junior investigators with >6 first-author papers
within 10 years were significantly (p < 0.0001) more likely (93%) to succeed than
those with ?6 first-author papers (4%), regardless of the journal's impact
factor. The benefit of COBRE-support increased the success rate of junior faculty
approximately 3-fold, from 15% to 47%. Our work defines a previously neglected
set of metrics that predicted the success of junior faculty with high
fidelity-thus defining the pool of faculty that will benefit the most from
faculty development programs such as COBREs.