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2015 ; 4
(ä): 525
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
English Wikipedia
A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap percentile estimates
for predicting presidential election results in Ghana
#MMPMID26435890
Nortey EN
; Ansah-Narh T
; Asah-Asante R
; Minkah R
Springerplus
2015[]; 4
(ä): 525
PMID26435890
show ga
Although, there exists numerous literature on the procedure for forecasting or
predicting election results, in Ghana only opinion poll strategies have been
used. To fill this gap, the paper develops Markov chain models for forecasting
the 2016 presidential election results at the Regional, Zonal (i.e. Savannah,
Coastal and Forest) and the National levels using past presidential election
results of Ghana. The methodology develops a model for prediction of the 2016
presidential election results in Ghana using the Markov chains Monte Carlo (MCMC)
methodology with bootstrap estimates. The results were that the ruling NDC may
marginally win the 2016 Presidential Elections but would not obtain the more than
50 % votes to be declared an outright winner. This means that there is going to
be a run-off election between the two giant political parties: the ruling NDC and
the major opposition party, NPP. The prediction for the 2016 Presidential run-off
election between the NDC and the NPP was rather in favour of the major opposition
party, the NPP with a little over the 50 % votes obtained.