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2015 ; 19
(3
): 174-186
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Predictors of Exceptional Longevity: Effects of Early-Life and Midlife
Conditions, and Familial Longevity
#MMPMID26412963
Gavrilov LA
; Gavrilova NS
N Am Actuar J
2015[]; 19
(3
): 174-186
PMID26412963
show ga
Knowledge of strong predictors of mortality and longevity is very important for
actuarial science and practice. Earlier studies found that parental
characteristics as well as early-life conditions and midlife environment play a
significant role in survival to advanced ages. However, little is known about the
simultaneous effects of these three factors on longevity. This ongoing study
attempts to fill this gap by comparing centenarians born in the United States in
1890-1891 with peers born in the same years who died at age 65. The records for
centenarians and controls were taken from computerized family histories, which
were then linked to 1900 and 1930 U.S. censuses. As a result of this linkage
procedure, 765 records of confirmed centenarians and 783 records of controls were
obtained. Analysis with multivariate logistic regression found the existence of
both general and gender-specific predictors of human longevity. General
predictors common for men and women are paternal and maternal longevity.
Gender-specific predictors of male longevity are occupation as a farmer at age
40, Northeastern region of birth in the United States, and birth in the second
half of year. A gender-specific predictor of female longevity is the availability
of radio in the household according to the 1930 U.S. census. Given the importance
of familial longevity as an independent predictor of survival to advanced ages,
we conducted a comparative study of biological and nonbiological relatives of
centenarians using a larger sample of 1,945 validated U.S. centenarians born in
1880-1895. We found that male gender of centenarian has a significant positive
effect on survival of adult male relatives (brothers and fathers) but not female
blood relatives. Life span of centenarian siblings-in-law is lower compared to
life span of centenarian siblings and does not depend on centenarian gender.
Wives of male centenarians (who share lifestyle and living conditions) have a
significantly better survival compared to wives of centenarians' brothers. This
finding demonstrates an important role of shared familial environment and
lifestyle in human longevity. The results of this study suggest that familial
background, some early-life conditions and midlife characteristics play an
important role in longevity.
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