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10.1002/2013SW001024 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1002/2013SW001024 C4508933!4508933!26213517     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Space+Weather 2014 ; 12 (5): 306-17 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=26213517|t=2014. MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity |pdf=|usr=}}{{26213517}} gab.com Text MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity JO: Space Weather http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=26213517 #FOAvip MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free magnetic energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the ?Present MAG4? technique and each of three alternative techniques, called ?McIntosh Active-Region Class,? ?Total Magnetic Flux,? and ?Next MAG4.? We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4).Key Points: Quantitative comparison of performance of pairs of forecasting techniques Next MAG4 forecasts major flares more accurately than Present MAG4 Present MAG4 forecast outperforms McIntosh AR Class and total magnetic flux Twit Text FOAVip MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity ????Space Weather http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=26213517 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=26213517 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|26213517}}</ref> MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity #MMPMID26213517 Falconer DA; Moore RL; Barghouty AF; Khazanov I Space Weather 2014[May]; 12 (5): 306-17 PMID26213517show ga MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free magnetic energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the ?Present MAG4? technique and each of three alternative techniques, called ?McIntosh Active-Region Class,? ?Total Magnetic Flux,? and ?Next MAG4.? We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4).Key Points: Quantitative comparison of performance of pairs of forecasting techniques Next MAG4 forecasts major flares more accurately than Present MAG4 Present MAG4 forecast outperforms McIntosh AR Class and total magnetic flux äMAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing