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2015 ; 112
(19
): 5938-43
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Geologic carbon storage is unlikely to trigger large earthquakes and reactivate
faults through which CO2 could leak
#MMPMID25902501
Vilarrasa V
; Carrera J
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
2015[May]; 112
(19
): 5938-43
PMID25902501
show ga
Zoback and Gorelick [(2012) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(26):10164-10168] have
claimed that geologic carbon storage in deep saline formations is very likely to
trigger large induced seismicity, which may damage the caprock and ruin the
objective of keeping CO2 stored deep underground. We argue that felt induced
earthquakes due to geologic CO2 storage are unlikely because (i) sedimentary
formations, which are softer than the crystalline basement, are rarely critically
stressed; (ii) the least stable situation occurs at the beginning of injection,
which makes it easy to control; (iii) CO2 dissolution into brine may help in
reducing overpressure; and (iv) CO2 will not flow across the caprock because of
capillarity, but brine will, which will reduce overpressure further. The latter
two mechanisms ensure that overpressures caused by CO2 injection will dissipate
in a moderate time after injection stops, hindering the occurrence of
postinjection induced seismicity. Furthermore, even if microseismicity were
induced, CO2 leakage through fault reactivation would be unlikely because the
high clay content of caprocks ensures a reduced permeability and increased entry
pressure along the localized deformation zone. For these reasons, we contend that
properly sited and managed geologic carbon storage in deep saline formations
remains a safe option to mitigate anthropogenic climate change.