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2015 ; 112
(15
): 4576-81
Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
English Wikipedia
Extreme rainfall activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El
Niņo/Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia
#MMPMID25825740
Denniston RF
; Villarini G
; Gonzales AN
; Wyrwoll KH
; Polyak VJ
; Ummenhofer CC
; Lachniet MS
; Wanamaker AD Jr
; Humphreys WF
; Woods D
; Cugley J
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
2015[Apr]; 112
(15
): 4576-81
PMID25825740
show ga
Assessing temporal variability in extreme rainfall events before the historical
era is complicated by the sparsity of long-term "direct" storm proxies. Here we
present a 2,200-y-long, accurate, and precisely dated record of cave flooding
events from the northwest Australian tropics that we interpret, based on an
integrated analysis of meteorological data and sediment layers within
stalagmites, as representing a proxy for extreme rainfall events derived
primarily from tropical cyclones (TCs) and secondarily from the regional summer
monsoon. This time series reveals substantial multicentennial variability in
extreme rainfall, with elevated occurrence rates characterizing the twentieth
century, 850-1450 CE (Common Era), and 50-400 CE; reduced activity marks
1450-1650 CE and 500-850 CE. These trends are similar to reconstructed numbers of
TCs in the North Atlantic and Caribbean basins, and they form temporal and
spatial patterns best explained by secular changes in the dominant mode of the El
Niņo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of modern TC variability. We
thus attribute long-term shifts in cyclogenesis in both the central Australian
and North Atlantic sectors over the past two millennia to entrenched El Niņo or
La Niņa states of the tropical Pacific. The influence of ENSO on monsoon
precipitation in this region of northwest Australia is muted, but ENSO-driven
changes to the monsoon may have complemented changes to TC activity.