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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Proc+Natl+Acad+Sci+U+S+A 2015 ; 112 (11): 3241-6 Nephropedia Template TP
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Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought #MMPMID25733898
Kelley CP; Mohtadi S; Cane MA; Seager R; Kushnir Y
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2015[Mar]; 112 (11): 3241-6 PMID25733898show ga
There is evidence that the 2007?2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007?2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict.