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2014 ; 39
(2
): 294-302
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Formulating appropriate statistical hypotheses for treatment comparison in
clinical trial design and analysis
#MMPMID25308312
Huang P
; Ou AH
; Piantadosi S
; Tan M
Contemp Clin Trials
2014[Nov]; 39
(2
): 294-302
PMID25308312
show ga
We discuss the problem of properly defining treatment superiority through the
specification of hypotheses in clinical trials. The need to precisely define the
notion of superiority in a one-sided hypothesis test problem has been well
recognized by many authors. Ideally designed null and alternative hypotheses
should correspond to a partition of all possible scenarios of underlying true
probability models P={P(?):???} such that the alternative hypothesis
Ha={P(?):???a} can be inferred upon the rejection of null hypothesis
Ho={P(?):???(o)} However, in many cases, tests are carried out and
recommendations are made without a precise definition of superiority or a
specification of alternative hypothesis. Moreover, in some applications, the
union of probability models specified by the chosen null and alternative
hypothesis does not constitute a completed model collection P (i.e., H(o)?H(a) is
smaller than P). This not only imposes a strong non-validated assumption of the
underlying true models, but also leads to different superiority claims depending
on which test is used instead of scientific plausibility. Different ways to
partition P fro testing treatment superiority often have different implications
on sample size, power, and significance in both efficacy and comparative
effectiveness trial design. Such differences are often overlooked. We provide a
theoretical framework for evaluating the statistical properties of different
specification of superiority in typical hypothesis testing. This can help
investigators to select proper hypotheses for treatment comparison inclinical
trial design.