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2014 ; 29
(9
): 1696-701
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A new clinical multivariable model that predicts postoperative acute kidney
injury: impact of endogenous ouabain
#MMPMID24920842
Simonini M
; Lanzani C
; Bignami E
; Casamassima N
; Frati E
; Meroni R
; Messaggio E
; Alfieri O
; Hamlyn J
; Body SC
; Collard CD
; Zangrillo A
; Manunta P
Nephrol Dial Transplant
2014[Sep]; 29
(9
): 1696-701
PMID24920842
show ga
BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an important complication of cardiac
surgery. Recently, elevated levels of endogenous ouabain (EO), an adrenal stress
hormone with haemodynamic and renal effects, have been associated with worse
renal outcome after cardiac surgery. Our aim was to develop and evaluate a new
risk model of AKI using simple preoperative clinical parameters and to
investigate the utility of EO. METHODS: The primary outcome was AKI according to
Acute Kidney Injury Network stage II or III. We selected the Northern New England
Cardiovascular Disease Study Group (NNECDSG) as a reference model. We built a new
internal predictive risk model considering common clinical variables (CLIN-RISK),
compared this model with the NNECDSG model and determined whether the addition of
preoperative plasma EO improved prediction of AKI. RESULTS: All models were
tested on >800 patients admitted for elective cardiac surgery in our hospital.
Seventy-nine patients developed AKI (9.9%). Preoperative EO levels were strongly
associated with the incidence of AKI and clinical complication (total ICU stay
and in-hospital mortality). The NNECDSG model was confirmed as a good predictor
of AKI (AUC 0.74, comparable to the NNECDSG reference population). Our CLIN-RISK
model had improved predictive power for AKI (AUC 0.79, CI 95% 0.73-0.84).
Furthermore, addition of preoperative EO levels to both clinical models improved
AUC to 0.79 and to 0.83, respectively (?AUC +0.05 and +0.04, respectively, P <
0.01). CONCLUSION: In a population where the predictive power of the NNECDSG
model was confirmed, CLIN-RISK was more powerful. Both clinical models were
further improved by the addition of preoperative plasma EO levels. These new
models provide improved predictability of the relative risk for the development
of AKI following cardiac surgery and suggest that EO is a marker for renal
vascular injury.