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2014 ; 4
(10
): 1903-12
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A hidden Markov model to identify and adjust for selection bias: an example
involving mixed migration strategies
#MMPMID24963384
Fieberg JR
; Conn PB
Ecol Evol
2014[May]; 4
(10
): 1903-12
PMID24963384
show ga
An important assumption in observational studies is that sampled individuals are
representative of some larger study population. Yet, this assumption is often
unrealistic. Notable examples include online public-opinion polls, publication
biases associated with statistically significant results, and in ecology,
telemetry studies with significant habitat-induced probabilities of missed
locations. This problem can be overcome by modeling selection probabilities
simultaneously with other predictor-response relationships or by weighting
observations by inverse selection probabilities. We illustrate the problem and a
solution when modeling mixed migration strategies of northern white-tailed deer
(Odocoileus virginianus). Captures occur on winter yards where deer migrate in
response to changing environmental conditions. Yet, not all deer migrate in all
years, and captures during mild years are more likely to target deer that migrate
every year (i.e., obligate migrators). Characterizing deer as conditional or
obligate migrators is also challenging unless deer are observed for many years
and under a variety of winter conditions. We developed a hidden Markov model
where the probability of capture depends on each individual's migration strategy
(conditional versus obligate migrator), a partially latent variable that depends
on winter severity in the year of capture. In a 15-year study, involving 168
white-tailed deer, the estimated probability of migrating for conditional
migrators increased nonlinearly with an index of winter severity. We estimated a
higher proportion of obligates in the study cohort than in the population, except
during a span of 3 years surrounding back-to-back severe winters. These results
support the hypothesis that selection biases occur as a result of capturing deer
on winter yards, with the magnitude of bias depending on the severity of winter
weather. Hidden Markov models offer an attractive framework for addressing
selection biases due to their ability to incorporate latent variables and model
direct and indirect links between state variables and capture probabilities.