Worldwide inference of national methane emissions by inversion of satellite
observations with UNFCCC prior estimates
#MMPMID41381589
East JD
; Jacob DJ
; Jervis D
; Balasus N
; Estrada LA
; Hancock SE
; Sulprizio MP
; Thomas J
; Wang X
; Chen Z
; Varon DJ
; Worden JR
Nat Commun
2025[Dec]; 16
(1
): 11004
PMID41381589
show ga
Meeting climate policy goals to reduce methane emissions under the Paris
Agreement and the Global Methane Pledge requires nations to set targets and
quantify reductions. Individual countries report emissions by sector to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) but there are
large uncertainties. Here we optimize 2023 national emissions at up to 25?km grid
resolution for 161 countries with a globally consistent open-source framework for
inverse analysis of Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite
observations, using UNFCCC reports for prior estimates together with point source
information from GHGSat and other satellites. We find global anthropogenic
emissions to be 15% higher than UNFCCC reporting (32% for oil-gas), with national
emissions more than 50% higher than reporting for a quarter of the countries.
Oil-gas emission intensities vary by two orders of magnitude between countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest livestock emission intensity of any region.
Hydroelectric reservoirs, generally not included in UNFCCC reporting, contribute
6% of anthropogenic emissions globally. The framework allows updates for
subsequent years, enabling monitoring of emission trends and support for improved
reporting.
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