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2025 ; 25
(1
): 754
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Enhancing explainability of random survival forests in predicting stent patency
risk for malignant colonic obstruction
#MMPMID41131471
Wan Y
; Zou MS
; Li D
; Li Y
; Cao XZ
; Zhang B
; Wu HH
BMC Gastroenterol
2025[Oct]; 25
(1
): 754
PMID41131471
show ga
BACKGROUND: This study aims to enhance the explainability and predictive accuracy
of the Random Survival Forest (RSF) algorithm in predicting stent patency risk
for patients with malignant colonic obstruction. METHODS: The RSF algorithm was
applied to clinical prognostic data of 109 patients with malignant colonic
obstruction who underwent self-expandable metallic stent (SEMS) procedures
between September 2014 and October 2023. We combined the RSF variable importance
and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) regression to
identify the final predictive variables. And the performance of the RSF model was
compared with the Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model using both global and
local explanation methods. RESULTS: The RSF model demonstrated superior
predictive performance, with higher time-dependent AUCs and lower Brier scores
compared to the CPH model across various time points. Significant predictors of
stent patency identified by the RSF and Lasso models included Diabetes, CA199,
Pre-Chemotherapy and Length of obstruction. The partial dependence plots
highlighted CA199 and Length of obstruction as critical variables, with SHAP
(SHapley Additive exPlanations) and LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic
Explanations) analyses further revealing the dynamic, time-varying impact of
these variables on individual patient outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The RSF algorithm,
supplemented with comprehensive feature importance analyses and advanced
interpretability techniques, offers a robust and reliable framework for
predicting stent patency risk in patients with malignant colonic obstruction.