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2025 ; 25
(1
): 392
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Prediction of postoperative haemorrhage after cerebral tumour surgery using
machine learning algorithms
#MMPMID41131537
Göktürk Y
; Ba?arslan SK
; Göktürk ?
; Kocaman H
; Y?ld?r?m H
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak
2025[Oct]; 25
(1
): 392
PMID41131537
show ga
BACKGROUND: Traditional diagnostic methods used by neurosurgeons are limited in
their ability to address complex interactions. These limitations have
necessitated the use of advanced artificial intelligence approaches capable of
analyzing multidimensional data with greater precision in neurosurgical clinics.
Postoperative intracranial hemorrhage is a critical complication following
cerebral tumor surgery, often associated with increased morbidity and mortality.
This study aimed to predict the risk of postoperative intracerebral hemorrhage in
patients undergoing intracranial tumor surgery by employing machine learning (ML)
algorithms for risk stratification and identifying key contributing factors.
METHODS: This retrospective study included 118 patients monitored in the
neurosurgical intensive care unit between January 2024 and January 2025. The
primary outcome was postoperative hemorrhage, defined as a radiologically
confirmed hematoma???5 ml on brain CT within 24 h. Using a predefined set of
clinical and biochemical parameters analyzed with SPSS and R, multiple ML
algorithms were developed. To address class imbalance in the training data, the
Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) was applied. Models were
evaluated using metrics including Area Under the Curve (AUC), accuracy, and
F1-score, with further assessment via calibration plots and Decision Curve
Analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The LightGBM model demonstrated a robust and balanced
predictive performance, achieving a test AUC of 0.7451, an accuracy of 76.9%, a
sensitivity of 77.8%, and an F1-score of 0.700. Platelet count (PLT), serum
chloride (Cl), and the change in C-reactive protein from pre- to postoperative
state (delta-CRP) emerged as the most influential predictors of hemorrhage. Model
explainability was enhanced using SHAP and LIME analyses, and the model showed
good calibration with potential clinical net benefit. CONCLUSION: Our study
suggests that ML algorithms, particularly LightGBM, show promise for predicting
postoperative hemorrhage following brain tumor surgery. Biomarkers such as
platelet count, chloride, and delta-CRP offer clinically meaningful insights for
early risk detection. Once externally validated, the integration of such models
into clinical decision support systems could potentially improve postoperative
monitoring and patient outcomes.