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Forecasting and comparative analysis of Covid-19 cases in India and US #MMPMID35340736
Biswas S
Eur Phys J Spec Top 2022[]; 231 (18-20): 3537-3544 PMID35340736show ga
The devastating waves of covid-19 have wreaked havoc on the world, particularly India and US. The article aims to predict the real-time forecasts of covid-19 confirm cases for India and US. To serve the purpose, ARIMA and NNAR based models have been used to the daily new covid-19 confirm cases. The proposed hybrid models are: (i) ARIMA-NNAR model, (ii) NNAR-ARIMA model, (iii) ARIMA-Wavelet ARIMA model, (iv) ARIMA-Wavelet ANN model, (v) NNAR-Wavelet ANN model, and (vi) NNAR-Wavelet ARIMA model. The models are performed to predict the next 45 days of daily new cases. These forecasts can help Govt. to predict the behavior of covid -19 and aware people about the upcoming third wave of covid-19. Our results suggest that hybrid models perform better than single models. We have also proved that our wavelet-based hybrid models can outdated the performance of previously defined hybrid models in terms of accuracy assessments (MAE and RMSE). We have also estimated the time-dependent reproduction number for India and US to observe the present situation.