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10.1371/journal.pone.0260151

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pone.0260151
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34847187!8631610!34847187
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34847187      PLoS+One 2021 ; 16 (11): e0260151
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  • Impact of excluding nursing home COVID-19 cases when assessing the relationship between county-level social distancing behavior and COVID-19 cases across the US during the early phase of the pandemic, February 2020-May 2020 #MMPMID34847187
  • Tran P; Tran L; Tran L
  • PLoS One 2021[]; 16 (11): e0260151 PMID34847187show ga
  • OBJECTIVES: To conduct a cross-sectional nationwide study examining how exclusion of nursing home COVID-19 cases influences the association between county level social distancing behavior and COVID-19 cases throughout the US during the early phase of the pandemic (February 2020-May 2020). METHODS: Using county-level COVID-19 data and social distancing metrics from tracked mobile devices, we investigated the impact social distancing had on a county's total COVID-19 cases (cases/100,000 people) between when the first COVID-19 case was confirmed in a county and May 31st, 2020 when most statewide social distancing measures were lifted, representing the pandemic's exponential growth phase. We created a mixed-effects negative binomial model to assess how implementation of social distancing measures when they were most stringent (March 2020-May 2020) influenced total COVID-19 cases while controlling for social distancing and COVID-19 related covariates in two scenarios: (1) when COVID-19 nursing home cases are not excluded from total COVID-19 cases and (2) when these cases are excluded. Model findings were compared to those from February 2020, a baseline when social distancing measures were not in place. Marginal effects at the means were generated to further isolate the influence of social distancing on COVID-19 from other factors and determine total COVID-19 cases during March 2020-May 2020 for the two scenarios. RESULTS: Regardless of whether nursing home COVID-19 cases were excluded from total COVID-19 cases, a 1% increase in average % of mobile devices leaving home was significantly associated with a 5% increase in a county's total COVID-19 cases between March 2020-May 2020 and about a 2.5% decrease in February 2020. When the influence of social distancing was separated from other factors, the estimated total COVID-19 cases/100,000 people was comparable throughout the range of social distancing values (25%-45% of mobile phone devices leaving home between March 2020-May 2020) when nursing home COVID-19 cases were not excluded (25% of mobile phones leaving home: 163.84 cases/100,000 people (95% CI: 121.81, 205.86), 45% of mobile phones leaving home: 432.79 cases/100,000 people (95% CI: 256.91, 608.66)) and when they were excluded (25% of mobile phones leaving home: 149.58 cases/100,000 people (95% CI: 111.90, 187.26), 45% of mobile phones leaving home: 405.38 cases/100,000 people (95% CI: 243.14, 567.62)). CONCLUSIONS: Exclusion of nursing home COVID-19 cases from total COVID-19 case counts has little impact when estimating the relationship between county-level social distancing and preventing COVID-19 cases with additional research needed to see whether this finding is also observed for COVID-19 growth rates and mortality.
  • |*Behavior[MESH]
  • |*Nursing Homes[MESH]
  • |*Physical Distancing[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Epidemiological Models[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Pandemics/*prevention & control[MESH]


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