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10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100530

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100530
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34826786      Epidemics 2021 ; 37 (ä): 100530
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  • A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden #MMPMID34826786
  • Zardini A; Galli M; Tirani M; Cereda D; Manica M; Trentini F; Guzzetta G; Marziano V; Piccarreta R; Melegaro A; Ajelli M; Poletti P; Merler S
  • Epidemics 2021[Dec]; 37 (ä): 100530 PMID34826786show ga
  • Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases. In this work, we quantify age-specific probabilities of transitions between stages defining the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 infection from 1965 SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals identified in Italy between March and April 2020 among contacts of confirmed cases. Infected contacts of cases were confirmed via RT-PCR tests as part of contact tracing activities or retrospectively via IgG serological tests and followed-up for symptoms and clinical outcomes. In addition, we provide estimates of time intervals between key events defining the clinical progression of cases as obtained from a larger sample, consisting of 95,371 infections ascertained between February and July 2020. We found that being older than 60 years of age was associated with a 39.9% (95%CI: 36.2-43.6%) likelihood of developing respiratory symptoms or fever >/= 37.5 degrees C after SARS-CoV-2 infection; the 22.3% (95%CI: 19.3-25.6%) of the infections in this age group required hospital care and the 1% (95%CI: 0.4-2.1%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). The corresponding proportions in individuals younger than 60 years were estimated at 27.9% (95%CI: 25.4-30.4%), 8.8% (95%CI: 7.3-10.5%) and 0.4% (95%CI: 0.1-0.9%), respectively. The infection fatality ratio (IFR) ranged from 0.2% (95%CI: 0.0-0.6%) in individuals younger than 60 years to 12.3% (95%CI: 6.9-19.7%) for those aged 80 years or more; the case fatality ratio (CFR) in these two age classes was 0.6% (95%CI: 0.1-2%) and 19.2% (95%CI: 10.9-30.1%), respectively. The median length of stay in hospital was 10 (IQR: 3-21) days; the length of stay in ICU was 11 (IQR: 6-19) days. The obtained estimates provide insights into the epidemiology of COVID-19 and could be instrumental to refine mathematical modeling work supporting public health decisions.
  • |*COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Contact Tracing[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Public Health[MESH]
  • |Retrospective Studies[MESH]


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