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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 296.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Ann+Surg 2021 ; 274 (6): 904-912 Nephropedia Template TP
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Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Emergency Adult Surgical Patients and Surgical Services: An International Multi-center Cohort Study and Department Survey #MMPMID34402804
Winter Beatty J; Clarke JM; Sounderajah V; Acharya A; Rabinowicz S; Martin G; Warren LR; Yalamanchili S; Scott AJ; Burgnon E; Purkayastha S; Markar S; Kinross JM
Ann Surg 2021[Dec]; 274 (6): 904-912 PMID34402804show ga
OBJECTIVES: The PREDICT study aimed to determine how the COVID-19 pandemic affected surgical services and surgical patients and to identify predictors of outcomes in this cohort. BACKGROUND: High mortality rates were reported for surgical patients with COVID-19 in the early stages of the pandemic. However, the indirect impact of the pandemic on this cohort is not understood, and risk predictors are yet to be identified. METHODS: PREDICT is an international longitudinal cohort study comprising surgical patients presenting to hospital between March and August 2020, conducted alongside a survey of staff redeployment and departmental restructuring. A subgroup analysis of 3176 adult emergency patients, recruited by 55 teams across 18 countries is presented. RESULTS: Among adult emergency surgical patients, all-cause in-hospital mortality (IHM) was 3.6%, compared to 15.5% for those with COVID-19. However, only 14.1% received a COVID-19 test on admission in March, increasing to 76.5% by July.Higher Clinical Frailty Scale scores (CFS >7 aOR 18.87), ASA grade above 2 (aOR 4.29), and COVID-19 infection (aOR 5.12) were independently associated with significantly increased IHM.The peak months of the first wave were independently associated with significantly higher IHM (March aOR 4.34; April aOR 4.25; May aOR 3.97), compared to non-peak months.During the study, UK operating theatre capacity decreased by a mean of 63.6% with a concomitant 27.3% reduction in surgical staffing. CONCLUSION: The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted surgical patients, both directly through co-morbid infection and indirectly as shown by increasing mortality in peak months, irrespective of COVID-19 status.Higher CFS scores and ASA grades strongly predict outcomes in surgical patients and are an important risk assessment tool during the pandemic.