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Covasim: An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions #MMPMID34310589
Kerr CC; Stuart RM; Mistry D; Abeysuriya RG; Rosenfeld K; Hart GR; Nunez RC; Cohen JA; Selvaraj P; Hagedorn B; George L; Jastrzebski M; Izzo AS; Fowler G; Palmer A; Delport D; Scott N; Kelly SL; Bennette CS; Wagner BG; Chang ST; Oron AP; Wenger EA; Panovska-Griffiths J; Famulare M; Klein DJ
PLoS Comput Biol 2021[Jul]; 17 (7): e1009149 PMID34310589show ga
The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), an open-source model developed to help address these questions. Covasim includes country-specific demographic information on age structure and population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces, long-term care facilities, and communities; age-specific disease outcomes; and intrahost viral dynamics, including viral-load-based transmissibility. Covasim also supports an extensive set of interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing and protective equipment; pharmaceutical interventions, including vaccination; and testing interventions, such as symptomatic and asymptomatic testing, isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. These interventions can incorporate the effects of delays, loss-to-follow-up, micro-targeting, and other factors. Implemented in pure Python, Covasim has been designed with equal emphasis on performance, ease of use, and flexibility: realistic and highly customized scenarios can be run on a standard laptop in under a minute. In collaboration with local health agencies and policymakers, Covasim has already been applied to examine epidemic dynamics and inform policy decisions in more than a dozen countries in Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America.