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10.1371/journal.pone.0254456

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pone.0254456
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34260633!8279349!34260633
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suck abstract from ncbi

pmid34260633      PLoS+One 2021 ; 16 (7): e0254456
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  • The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach #MMPMID34260633
  • Alagoz O; Sethi AK; Patterson BW; Churpek M; Alhanaee G; Scaria E; Safdar N
  • PLoS One 2021[]; 16 (7): e0254456 PMID34260633show ga
  • INTRODUCTION: Vaccination programs aim to control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relative impacts of vaccine coverage, effectiveness, and capacity in the context of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as mask use and physical distancing on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are unclear. Our objective was to examine the impact of vaccination on the control of SARS-CoV-2 using our previously developed agent-based simulation model. METHODS: We applied our agent-based model to replicate COVID-19-related events in 1) Dane County, Wisconsin; 2) Milwaukee metropolitan area, Wisconsin; 3) New York City (NYC). We evaluated the impact of vaccination considering the proportion of the population vaccinated, probability that a vaccinated individual gains immunity, vaccination capacity, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. We estimated the timing of pandemic control, defined as the date after which only a small number of new cases occur. RESULTS: The timing of pandemic control depends highly on vaccination coverage, effectiveness, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. In Dane County and Milwaukee, if 50% of the population is vaccinated with a daily vaccination capacity of 0.25% of the population, vaccine effectiveness of 90%, and the adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 60%, controlled spread could be achieved by June 2021 versus October 2021 in Dane County and November 2021 in Milwaukee without vaccine. DISCUSSION: In controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the impact of vaccination varies widely depending not only on effectiveness and coverage, but also concurrent adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions.
  • |COVID-19 Vaccines/*therapeutic use[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Computer Simulation[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Masks[MESH]
  • |Patient Compliance/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Physical Distancing[MESH]
  • |Respiratory Protective Devices/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |United States[MESH]
  • |Urban Health[MESH]


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