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Longitudinal trajectories of pneumonia lesions and lymphocyte counts associated with disease severity among convalescent COVID-19 patients: a group-based multi-trajectory analysis #MMPMID34256743
Shi N; Huang C; Zhang Q; Shi C; Liu F; Song F; Hou Q; Shen J; Shan F; Su X; Liu C; Zhang Z; Shi L; Shi Y
BMC Pulm Med 2021[Jul]; 21 (1): 233 PMID34256743show ga
BACKGROUND: To explore the long-term trajectories considering pneumonia volumes and lymphocyte counts with individual data in COVID-19. METHODS: A cohort of 257 convalescent COVID-19 patients (131 male and 126 females) were included. Group-based multi-trajectory modelling was applied to identify different trajectories in terms of pneumonia lesion percentage and lymphocyte counts covering the time from onset to post-discharge follow-ups. We studied the basic characteristics and disease severity associated with the trajectories. RESULTS: We characterised four distinct trajectory subgroups. (1) Group 1 (13.9%), pneumonia increased until a peak lesion percentage of 1.9% (IQR 0.7-4.4) before absorption. The slightly decreased lymphocyte rapidly recovered to the top half of the normal range. (2) Group 2 (44.7%), the peak lesion percentage was 7.2% (IQR 3.2-12.7). The abnormal lymphocyte count restored to normal soon. (3) Group 3 (26.0%), the peak lesion percentage reached 14.2% (IQR 8.5-19.8). The lymphocytes continuously dropped to 0.75 x 10(9)/L after one day post-onset before slowly recovering. (4) Group 4 (15.4%), the peak lesion percentage reached 41.4% (IQR 34.8-47.9), much higher than other groups. Lymphopenia was aggravated until the lymphocytes declined to 0.80 x 10(9)/L on the fourth day and slowly recovered later. Patients in the higher order groups were older and more likely to have hypertension and diabetes (all P values < 0.05), and have more severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide new insights to understand the heterogeneous natural courses of COVID-19 patients and the associations of distinct trajectories with disease severity, which is essential to improve the early risk assessment, patient monitoring, and follow-up schedule.