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10.1038/s41598-021-93415-1

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1038/s41598-021-93415-1
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34238953      Sci+Rep 2021 ; 11 (1): 14108
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  • A novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries #MMPMID34238953
  • Shonchoy AS; Ishtiaq KS; Talukder S; Ahmed NU; Chowdhury R
  • Sci Rep 2021[Jul]; 11 (1): 14108 PMID34238953show ga
  • While the effectiveness of lockdowns to reduce Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) transmission is well established, uncertainties remain on the lifting principles of these restrictive interventions. World Health Organization recommends case positive rate of 5% or lower as a threshold for safe reopening. However, inadequate testing capacity limits the applicability of this recommendation, especially in the low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). To develop a practical reopening strategy for LMICs, in this study, we first identify the optimal timing of safe reopening by exploring accessible epidemiological data of 24 countries during the initial COVID-19 surge. We find that a safe opening can occur two weeks after the crossover of daily infection and recovery rates while maintaining a negative trend in daily new cases. Epidemiologic SIRM model-based example simulation supports our findings. Finally, we develop an easily interpretable large-scale reopening (LSR) index, which is an evidence-based toolkit-to guide/inform reopening decision for LMICs.
  • |*Decision Support Techniques[MESH]
  • |*Developing Countries[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/epidemiology/*prevention & control/transmission[MESH]
  • |Communicable Disease Control/*methods[MESH]
  • |Computer Simulation[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Income[MESH]


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