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10.1111/pirs.12615

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1111/pirs.12615
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34226811!8242800!34226811
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suck abstract from ncbi

pmid34226811      Pap+Reg+Sci 2021 ; 100 (5): 1209-1229
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  • Modeling the spread of COVID-19 in New York City #MMPMID34226811
  • Olmo J; Sanso-Navarro M
  • Pap Reg Sci 2021[Oct]; 100 (5): 1209-1229 PMID34226811show ga
  • This paper proposes an ensemble predictor for the weekly increase in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the city of New York at zip code level. Within a Bayesian model averaging framework, the baseline is a Poisson regression for count data. The set of covariates includes autoregressive terms, spatial effects, and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Our results for the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic show that these regressors are more significant to predict the number of new confirmed cases as the pandemic unfolds. Both pointwise and interval forecasts exhibit strong predictive ability in-sample and out-of-sample.
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