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10.14745/ccdr.v47i56a01

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.14745/ccdr.v47i56a01
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34220348!8219061!34220348
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34220348      Can+Commun+Dis+Rep 2021 ; 47 (56): 243-250
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  • Population surveillance approach to detect and respond to new clusters of COVID-19 #MMPMID34220348
  • Rees EE; Rodin R; Ogden NH
  • Can Commun Dis Rep 2021[Jun]; 47 (56): 243-250 PMID34220348show ga
  • BACKGROUND: To maintain control of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic as lockdowns are lifted, it will be crucial to enhance alternative public health measures. For surveillance, it will be necessary to detect a high proportion of any new cases quickly so that they can be isolated, and people who have been exposed to them traced and quarantined. Here we introduce a mathematical approach that can be used to determine how many samples need to be collected per unit area and unit time to detect new clusters of COVID-19 cases at a stage early enough to control an outbreak. METHODS: We present a sample size determination method that uses a relative weighted approach. Given the contribution of COVID-19 test results from sub-populations to detect the disease at a threshold prevalence level to control the outbreak to 1) determine if the expected number of weekly samples provided from current healthcare-based surveillance for respiratory virus infections may provide a sample size that is already adequate to detect new clusters of COVID-19 and, if not, 2) to determine how many additional weekly samples were needed from volunteer sampling. RESULTS: In a demonstration of our method at the weekly and Canadian provincial and territorial (P/T) levels, we found that only the more populous P/T have sufficient testing numbers from healthcare visits for respiratory illness to detect COVID-19 at our target prevalence level-assumed to be high enough to identify and control new clusters. Furthermore, detection of COVID-19 is most efficient (fewer samples required) when surveillance focuses on healthcare symptomatic testing demand. In the volunteer populations: the higher the contact rates; the higher the expected prevalence level; and the fewer the samples were needed to detect COVID-19 at a predetermined threshold level. CONCLUSION: This study introduces a targeted surveillance strategy, combining both passive and active surveillance samples, to determine how many samples to collect per unit area and unit time to detect new clusters of COVID-19 cases. The goal of this strategy is to allow for early enough detection to control an outbreak.
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