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10.1515/dx-2021-0020

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1515/dx-2021-0020
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34187134!ä!34187134

suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34187134      Diagnosis+(Berl) 2021 ; 8 (4): 450-457
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  • Using body temperature and variables commonly available in the EHR to predict acute infection: a proof-of-concept study showing improved pretest probability estimates for acute COVID-19 infection among discharged emergency department patients #MMPMID34187134
  • Berdahl CT; Nguyen AT; Diniz MA; Henreid AJ; Nuckols TK; Libby CP; Pevnick JM
  • Diagnosis (Berl) 2021[Nov]; 8 (4): 450-457 PMID34187134show ga
  • OBJECTIVES: Obtaining body temperature is a quick and easy method to screen for acute infection such as COVID-19. Currently, the predictive value of body temperature for acute infection is inhibited by failure to account for other readily available variables that affect temperature values. In this proof-of-concept study, we sought to improve COVID-19 pretest probability estimation by incorporating covariates known to be associated with body temperature, including patient age, sex, comorbidities, month, and time of day. METHODS: For patients discharged from an academic hospital emergency department after testing for COVID-19 in March and April of 2020, we abstracted clinical data. We reviewed physician documentation to retrospectively generate estimates of pretest probability for COVID-19. Using patients' COVID-19 PCR test results as a gold standard, we compared AUCs of logistic regression models predicting COVID-19 positivity that used: (1) body temperature alone; (2) body temperature and pretest probability; (3) body temperature, pretest probability, and body temperature-relevant covariates. Calibration plots and bootstrap validation were used to assess predictive performance for model #3. RESULTS: Data from 117 patients were included. The models' AUCs were: (1) 0.69 (2) 0.72, and (3) 0.76, respectively. The absolute difference in AUC was 0.029 (95% CI -0.057 to 0.114, p=0.25) between model 2 and 1 and 0.038 (95% CI -0.021 to 0.097, p=0.10) between model 3 and 2. CONCLUSIONS: By incorporating covariates known to affect body temperature, we demonstrated improved pretest probability estimates of acute COVID-19 infection. Future work should be undertaken to further develop and validate our model in a larger, multi-institutional sample.
  • |*COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Body Temperature[MESH]
  • |COVID-19 Testing[MESH]
  • |Emergency Service, Hospital[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Patient Discharge[MESH]
  • |Probability[MESH]
  • |Retrospective Studies[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]


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