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10.1007/s40121-021-00460-4

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1007/s40121-021-00460-4
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34128189      Infect+Dis+Ther 2021 ; 10 (3): 1491-1504
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  • A Novel Prediction Model of COVID-19 Progression: A Retrospective Cohort Study #MMPMID34128189
  • Xu W; Huang C; Fei L; Li W; Xie X; Li Q; Chen L
  • Infect Dis Ther 2021[Sep]; 10 (3): 1491-1504 PMID34128189show ga
  • INTRODUCTION: Estimating the risk of disease progression is of utmost importance for planning appropriate setting of care and treatment for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aimed to develop and validate a novel prediction model of COVID-19 progression. METHODS: In total, 814 patients in the training set were included to develop a novel scoring system; and 420 patients in the validation set were included to validate the model. RESULTS: A prediction score, called ACCCDL, was developed on the basis of six risk factors associated with COVID-19 progression: age, comorbidity, CD4(+) T cell count, C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH). For predicting COVID-19 progression, the ACCCDL score yielded a significantly higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) compared with the CALL score, CoLACD score, PH-COVID-19 score, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and lymphocyte-monocyte ratio both in the training set (0.92, 0.84, 0.83, 0.83, 0.76, and 0.65, respectively) and in the validation set (0.97, 0.83, 0.83, 0.78, 0.74, and 0.60, respectively). Over 99% of patients with the ACCCDL score < 12 points will not progress to severe cases, and over 30% of patients with the ACCCDL score > 20 points will progress to severe cases. CONCLUSION: The ACCCDL score could stratify patients with at risk of COVID-19 progression, and was useful in regulating the large flow of patients with COVID-19 between primary health care and tertiary centers.
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