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10.1371/journal.pntd.0009420

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009420
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34111117!8192006!34111117
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34111117      PLoS+Negl+Trop+Dis 2021 ; 15 (6): e0009420
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  • The impact of COVID-19 lockdown on dengue transmission in Sri Lanka; A natural experiment for understanding the influence of human mobility #MMPMID34111117
  • Liyanage P; Rocklov J; Tissera HA
  • PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021[Jun]; 15 (6): e0009420 PMID34111117show ga
  • BACKGROUND: Dengue is one of the major public health problems in Sri Lanka. Its outbreak pattern depends on a multitude of drivers, including human mobility. Here we evaluate the impact of COVID-19 related mobility restriction (lockdown) on the risk of dengue in Sri Lanka. METHODOLOGY: Two-stage hierarchical models were fitted using an interrupted time-series design based on the notified dengue cases, January 2015 to July 2020. In the first stage model, the district level impact was estimated using quasi-Poisson regression models while accounting for temporal trends. Estimates were pooled at zonal and national levels in the second stage model using meta-analysis. The influence of the extended period of school closure on dengue in children in the western province was compared to adults. FINDINGS: Statistically significant and homogeneous reduction of dengue risk was observed at all levels during the lockdown. Overall an 88% reduction in risk (RR 0.12; 95% CI from 0.08 to 0.17) was observed at the national level. The highest impact was observed among children aged less than 19 years showing a 92% reduction (RR 0.8; 95% CI from 0.03 to 0.25). We observed higher impact in the dry zone having 91% reduction (RR 0.09; 95% CI from 0.05 to 0.15) compared to wet zone showing 83% reduction (RR 0.17; 95% CI from 0.09 to 0.30). There was no indication that the overall health-seeking behaviour for dengue had a substantial influence on these estimates. SIGNIFICANCE: This study offers a broad understanding of the change in risk of dengue during the COVID-19 pandemic and associated mobility restrictions in Sri Lanka. The analysis using the mobility restrictions as a natural experiment suggests mobility patterns to be a very important driver of dengue transmission.
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Climate[MESH]
  • |Communicable Disease Control[MESH]
  • |Dengue/*epidemiology/*transmission[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Interrupted Time Series Analysis[MESH]
  • |Physical Distancing[MESH]
  • |Schools/statistics & numerical data[MESH]


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