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10.1038/s41598-021-91247-7

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1038/s41598-021-91247-7
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34108496!8190298!34108496
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34108496      Sci+Rep 2021 ; 11 (1): 12213
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  • Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions #MMPMID34108496
  • Barrett TJ; Patterson KC; James TM; Kruger P
  • Sci Rep 2021[Jun]; 11 (1): 12213 PMID34108496show ga
  • As we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here instead, for four highly-affected countries, we determine population susceptibilities by directly comparing country-wide observed epidemic dynamics data with that of their main metropolitan regions. We find significant susceptibility reductions in the metropolitan regions as a result of earlier seeding, with a relatively longer phase of exponential growth before the introduction of public health interventions. During the post-growth phase, the lower susceptibility of these regions contributed to the decline in cases, independent of intervention effects. Forward projections indicate that non-metropolitan regions will be more affected during recurrent epidemic waves compared with the initially heavier-hit metropolitan regions. Our findings have consequences for disease forecasts and resource utilisation.
  • |COVID-19/*epidemiology/mortality/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Cities/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Disease Susceptibility[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Models, Statistical[MESH]


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