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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Sci+Rep 2021 ; 11 (1): 12213 Nephropedia Template TP
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Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions #MMPMID34108496
Barrett TJ; Patterson KC; James TM; Kruger P
Sci Rep 2021[Jun]; 11 (1): 12213 PMID34108496show ga
As we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here instead, for four highly-affected countries, we determine population susceptibilities by directly comparing country-wide observed epidemic dynamics data with that of their main metropolitan regions. We find significant susceptibility reductions in the metropolitan regions as a result of earlier seeding, with a relatively longer phase of exponential growth before the introduction of public health interventions. During the post-growth phase, the lower susceptibility of these regions contributed to the decline in cases, independent of intervention effects. Forward projections indicate that non-metropolitan regions will be more affected during recurrent epidemic waves compared with the initially heavier-hit metropolitan regions. Our findings have consequences for disease forecasts and resource utilisation.