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10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100092

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100092
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34104904      Lancet+Reg+Health+Eur 2021 ; 5 (ä): 100092
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  • A cross-sectional and prospective cohort study of the role of schools in the SARS-CoV-2 second wave in Italy #MMPMID34104904
  • Gandini S; Rainisio M; Iannuzzo ML; Bellerba F; Cecconi F; Scorrano L
  • Lancet Reg Health Eur 2021[Jun]; 5 (ä): 100092 PMID34104904show ga
  • BACKGROUND: During COVID-19 pandemic, school closure has been mandated in analogy to its effect against influenza, but it is unclear whether schools are early COVID-19 amplifiers. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study in Italy during the second COVID-19 wave (from September 30, 2020 until at least February 28, 2021). We used databases from the Italian Ministry of Education, the Veneto region systems of SARS-CoV-2 cases notification and of schools' secondary cases tracing to compare SARS-CoV-2 incidence in students/school staff and general population and incidence across age groups. Number of tests, secondary infections by type of index case and ratio cases/ tests per school were estimated using an adjusted multivariable generalized linear regression model. Regional reproduction numbers R(t) were estimated from Italian Civil Protection daily incidence data with a method of posterior distribution using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. FINDINGS: SARS-CoV-2 incidence among students was lower than in the general population. Secondary infections at school were <1%, and clusters of >/=2 secondary cases occurred in 5-7% of the analysed schools. Incidence among teachers was comparable to the population of similar age (P = 0.23). Secondary infections among teachers were rare, occurring more frequently when the index case was a teacher than a student (37% vs. 10%, P = 0.007). Before and around the date of school opening in Veneto, SARS-CoV-2 incidence grew maximally in 20-29- and 45-49-years old individuals, not among students. The lag between school opening dates in Italian regions and the increase in the regional COVID-19 R(t) was not uniform. Finally, school closures in two regions where they were implemented before other measures did not affect R(t) decrease. INTERPRETATION: This analysis does not support a role for school opening as a driver of the second COVID-19 wave in Italy, a large European country with high SARS-CoV-2 incidence. FUNDING: Fondazione MITE.
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