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10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.22.2001536 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.22.2001536 34085634!8176673!34085634     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Euro+Surveill 2021 ; 26 (22): ä Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=34085634|t=2021. Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study |pdf=|usr=}}{{34085634}} gab.com Text Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study JO: Euro Surveill http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=34085634 #FOAvip BackgroundGiven its high economic and societal cost, policymakers might be reluctant to implement a large-scale lockdown in case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic rebound. They may consider it as a last resort option if alternative control measures fail to reduce transmission.AimWe developed a modelling framework to ascertain the use of lockdown to ensure intensive care unit (ICU) capacity does not exceed a peak target defined by policymakers.MethodsWe used a deterministic compartmental model describing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the trajectories of COVID-19 patients in healthcare settings, accounting for age-specific mixing patterns and an increasing probability of severe outcomes with age. The framework is illustrated in the context of metropolitan France.ResultsThe daily incidence of ICU admissions and the number of occupied ICU beds are the most robust indicators to decide when a lockdown should be triggered. When the doubling time of hospitalisations estimated before lockdown is between 8 and 20 days, lockdown should be enforced when ICU admissions reach 3.0-3.7 and 7.8-9.5 per million for peak targets of 62 and 154 ICU beds per million (4,000 and 10,000 beds for metropolitan France), respectively. When implemented earlier, the lockdown duration required to get back below a desired level is also shorter.ConclusionsWe provide simple indicators and triggers to decide if and when a last-resort lockdown should be implemented to avoid saturation of ICU. These metrics can support the planning and real-time management of successive COVID-19 pandemic waves. Twit Text FOAVip Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study ????Euro Surveill http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=34085634 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=34085634 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|34085634}}</ref> Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study #MMPMID34085634 Tran Kiem C; Crepey P; Bosetti P; Levy Bruhl D; Yazdanpanah Y; Salje H; Boelle PY; Cauchemez S Euro Surveill 2021[Jun]; 26 (22): ä PMID34085634show ga BackgroundGiven its high economic and societal cost, policymakers might be reluctant to implement a large-scale lockdown in case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic rebound. They may consider it as a last resort option if alternative control measures fail to reduce transmission.AimWe developed a modelling framework to ascertain the use of lockdown to ensure intensive care unit (ICU) capacity does not exceed a peak target defined by policymakers.MethodsWe used a deterministic compartmental model describing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the trajectories of COVID-19 patients in healthcare settings, accounting for age-specific mixing patterns and an increasing probability of severe outcomes with age. The framework is illustrated in the context of metropolitan France.ResultsThe daily incidence of ICU admissions and the number of occupied ICU beds are the most robust indicators to decide when a lockdown should be triggered. When the doubling time of hospitalisations estimated before lockdown is between 8 and 20 days, lockdown should be enforced when ICU admissions reach 3.0-3.7 and 7.8-9.5 per million for peak targets of 62 and 154 ICU beds per million (4,000 and 10,000 beds for metropolitan France), respectively. When implemented earlier, the lockdown duration required to get back below a desired level is also shorter.ConclusionsWe provide simple indicators and triggers to decide if and when a last-resort lockdown should be implemented to avoid saturation of ICU. These metrics can support the planning and real-time management of successive COVID-19 pandemic waves. |*COVID-19[MESH] |*Pandemics[MESH] |Communicable Disease Control[MESH] |France/epidemiology[MESH] |Humans[MESH]Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound:(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing