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10.3390/ijerph18105221

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.3390/ijerph18105221
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34068947!8156721!34068947
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34068947      Int+J+Environ+Res+Public+Health 2021 ; 18 (10): ä
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  • Transmission Dynamics, Heterogeneity and Controllability of SARS-CoV-2: A Rural-Urban Comparison #MMPMID34068947
  • Li Y; Hu T; Gai X; Zhang Y; Zhou X
  • Int J Environ Res Public Health 2021[May]; 18 (10): ä PMID34068947show ga
  • Few studies have examined the transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in rural areas and clarified rural-urban differences. Moreover, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) relative to vaccination in rural areas is uncertain. We addressed this knowledge gap through using an improved statistical stochastic method based on the Galton-Watson branching process, considering both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Data included 1136 SARS-2-CoV infections of the rural outbreak in Hebei, China, and 135 infections of the urban outbreak in Tianjin, China. We reconstructed SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains and analyzed the effectiveness of vaccination and NPIs by simulation studies. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 showed strong heterogeneity in urban and rural areas, with the dispersion parameters k = 0.14 and 0.35, respectively (k < 1 indicating strong heterogeneity). Although age group and contact-type distributions significantly differed between urban and rural areas, the average reproductive number (R) and k did not. Further, simulation results based on pre-control parameters (R = 0.81, k = 0.27) showed that in the vaccination scenario (80% efficacy and 55% coverage), the cumulative secondary infections will be reduced by more than half; however, NPIs are more effective than vaccinating 65% of the population. These findings could inform government policies regarding vaccination and NPIs in rural and urban areas.
  • |*COVID-19[MESH]
  • |*SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |China/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Computer Simulation[MESH]
  • |Disease Outbreaks[MESH]


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