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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Philos+Trans+R+Soc+Lond+B+Biol+Sci 2021 ; 376 (1829): 20200270 Nephropedia Template TP
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Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing #MMPMID34053257
Lucas TCD; Davis EL; Ayabina D; Borlase A; Crellen T; Pi L; Medley GF; Yardley L; Klepac P; Gog J; Deirdre Hollingsworth T
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2021[Jul]; 376 (1829): 20200270 PMID34053257show ga
Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.