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10.1098/rstb.2020.0269 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1098/rstb.2020.0269 34053256!8165603!34053256     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Philos+Trans+R+Soc+Lond+B+Biol+Sci 2021 ; 376 (1829): 20200269 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=34053256|t=2021. Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated |pdf=|usr=}}{{34053256}} gab.com Text Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated JO: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=34053256 #FOAvip The number of COVID-19 outbreaks reported in UK care homes rose rapidly in early March of 2020. Owing to the increased co-morbidities and therefore worse COVID-19 outcomes for care home residents, it is important that we understand this increase and its future implications. We demonstrate the use of an SIS model where each nursing home is an infective unit capable of either being susceptible to an outbreak (S) or in an active outbreak (I). We use a generalized additive model to approximate the trend in growth rate of outbreaks in care homes and find the fit to be improved in a model where the growth rate is proportional to the number of current care home outbreaks compared with a model with a constant growth rate. Using parameters found from the outbreak-dependent growth rate, we predict a 73% prevalence of outbreaks in UK care homes without intervention as a reasonable worst-case planning assumption. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'. Twit Text FOAVip Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated ????Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=34053256 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=34053256 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|34053256}}</ref> Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated #MMPMID34053256 Hall I; Lewkowicz H; Webb L; House T; Pellis L; Sedgwick J; Gent N Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2021[Jul]; 376 (1829): 20200269 PMID34053256show ga The number of COVID-19 outbreaks reported in UK care homes rose rapidly in early March of 2020. Owing to the increased co-morbidities and therefore worse COVID-19 outcomes for care home residents, it is important that we understand this increase and its future implications. We demonstrate the use of an SIS model where each nursing home is an infective unit capable of either being susceptible to an outbreak (S) or in an active outbreak (I). We use a generalized additive model to approximate the trend in growth rate of outbreaks in care homes and find the fit to be improved in a model where the growth rate is proportional to the number of current care home outbreaks compared with a model with a constant growth rate. Using parameters found from the outbreak-dependent growth rate, we predict a 73% prevalence of outbreaks in UK care homes without intervention as a reasonable worst-case planning assumption. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'. |*Pandemics[MESH] |Aged[MESH] |COVID-19/*epidemiology/virology[MESH] |Cost of Illness[MESH] |Female[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Male[MESH] |Nursing Homes/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |SARS-CoV-2/*pathogenicity[MESH]Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing