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10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046157

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046157
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34031114      BMJ+Open 2021 ; 11 (5): e046157
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  • Could COVID-19 pandemic be stopped with joint efforts of travel restrictions and public health countermeasures? A modelling study #MMPMID34031114
  • Kong L; Hu Y; Wang Q; Chen X; Yao T; Wang Y; Jin H; Fan L; Du W
  • BMJ Open 2021[May]; 11 (5): e046157 PMID34031114show ga
  • OBJECTIVE: We aim to explore and compare the effect of global travel restrictions and public health countermeasures in response to COVID-19 outbreak. DESIGN: A data-driven spatio-temporal modelling to simulate the spread of COVID-19 worldwide for 150 days since 1 January 2020 under different scenarios. SETTING: Worldwide. INTERVENTIONS: Travel restrictions and public health countermeasures. MAIN OUTCOME: The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases could reach more than 420 million around the world without any countermeasures taken. Under timely and intensive global interventions, 99.97% of infections could be avoided comparing with non-interventions. The scenario of carrying out domestic travel restriction and public health countermeasures in China only could contribute to a significant decrease of the cumulative number of infected cases worldwide. Without global travel restriction in the study setting, 98.62% of COVID-19 cases could be avoided by public health countermeasures in China only compared with non-interventions at all. CONCLUSIONS: Public health countermeasures were generally more effective than travel restrictions in many countries, suggesting multinational collaborations in the public health communities in response to this novel global health challenge.
  • |*COVID-19[MESH]
  • |*Pandemics[MESH]
  • |China/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Public Health[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]


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