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10.1016/j.idm.2021.05.001

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.idm.2021.05.001
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34028469!8132555!34028469
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34028469      Infect+Dis+Model 2021 ; 6 (ä): 743-750
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  • Power-law growth of the COVID-19 fatality incidents in Europe #MMPMID34028469
  • Xenikos DG; Asimakopoulos A
  • Infect Dis Model 2021[]; 6 (ä): 743-750 PMID34028469show ga
  • We report on the dynamic scaling of the diffusion growth phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe. During this initial diffusion stage, the European countries implemented unprecedented mitigation polices to delay and suppress the disease contagion, although not in a uniform way or timing. Despite this diversity, we find that the reported fatality cases grow following a power law in all European countries we studied. The difference among countries is the value of the power-law exponent 3.5 < alpha < 8.0. This common attribute can prove a practical diagnostic tool, allowing reasonable predictions for the growth rate from very early data at a country level. We propose a model for the disease-causing interactions, based on a mechanism of human decisions and risk taking in interpersonal associations. The model describes the observed statistical distribution and contributes to the discussion on basic assumptions for homogeneous mixing or for a network perspective in epidemiological studies of COVID-19.
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