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10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044149 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044149 34006031!7941678!34006031     free     free     free Warning: file_get_contents(https://eutils.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&id=34006031&cmd=llinks): Failed to open stream: HTTP request failed! 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Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios |pdf=|usr=}}{{34006031}} gab.com Text Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios JO: BMJ Open http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=34006031 #FOAvip OBJECTIVES: As of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policymaking decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios. DESIGN: We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analysed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB). RESULTS: In the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645 081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa, projected peak severe infections increase from 162 977 to 2 03 261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives. Twit Text FOAVip Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios ????BMJ Open http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=34006031 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=34006031 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|34006031}}</ref> Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios #MMPMID34006031 Frost I; Craig J; Osena G; Hauck S; Kalanxhi E; Schueller E; Gatalo O; Yang Y; Tseng KK; Lin G; Klein E BMJ Open 2021[Mar]; 11 (3): e044149 PMID34006031show ga OBJECTIVES: As of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policymaking decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios. DESIGN: We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analysed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB). RESULTS: In the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645 081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa, projected peak severe infections increase from 162 977 to 2 03 261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives. |*COVID-19[MESH] |*Pandemics[MESH] |Communicable Disease Control[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Nigeria[MESH] |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing