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10.1016/j.jinf.2021.04.033

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.jinf.2021.04.033
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid34004222      J+Infect 2021 ; 83 (2): 228-236
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  • The impact of primary care supported shielding on the risk of mortality in people vulnerable to COVID-19: English sentinel network matched cohort study #MMPMID34004222
  • Zarif A; Joy M; Sherlock J; Sheppard JP; Byford R; Akinyemi O; Bankhead CR; Deeks A; Ferreira F; Jones N; Liyanage H; McGagh D; Nicholson B; Oke J; Okusi C; Tripathy M; Williams J; Hobbs R; de Lusignan S
  • J Infect 2021[Aug]; 83 (2): 228-236 PMID34004222show ga
  • OBJECTIVES: To mitigate risk of mortality from coronavirus 2019 infection (COVID-19), the UK government recommended 'shielding' of vulnerable people through self-isolation for 12 weeks. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using a nationally representative English primary care database comparing people aged >= 40 years who were recorded as being advised to shield using a fixed ratio of 1:1, matching to people with the same diagnoses not advised to shield (n?=?77,360 per group). Time-to-death was compared using Cox regression, reporting the hazard ratio (HR) of mortality between groups. A sensitivity analysis compared exact matched cohorts (n?=?24,752 shielded, n?=?61,566 exact matches). RESULTS: We found a time-varying HR of mortality between groups. In the first 21 days, the mortality risk in people shielding was half those not (HR?=?0.50, 95%CI:0.41-0.59. p < 0.0001). Over the remaining nine weeks, mortality risk was 54% higher in the shielded group (HR=1.54, 95%CI:1.41-1.70, p < 0.0001). Beyond the shielding period, mortality risk was over two-and-a-half times higher in the shielded group (HR=2.61, 95%CI:2.38-2.87, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Shielding halved the risk of mortality for 21 days. Mortality risk became higher across the remainder of the shielding period, rising to two-and-a-half times greater post-shielding. Shielding may be beneficial in the next wave of COVID-19.
  • |*COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Cohort Studies[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Primary Health Care[MESH]
  • |Retrospective Studies[MESH]


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