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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 215.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Medicine+(Baltimore) 2021 ; 100 (18): e25837 Nephropedia Template TP
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Assessment of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 at global level: A meta-analysis #MMPMID33950996
Yu CJ; Wang ZX; Xu Y; Hu MX; Chen K; Qin G
Medicine (Baltimore) 2021[May]; 100 (18): e25837 PMID33950996show ga
BACKGROUND: There are large knowledge gaps regarding how transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in different settings across the world. This study aims to summarize basic reproduction number (R0) data and provide clues for designing prevention and control measures. METHODS: Several databases and preprint platforms were retrieved for literature reporting R0 values of COVID-19. The analysis was stratified by the prespecified modeling method to make the R0 values comparable, and by country/region to explore whether R0 estimates differed across the world. The average R0 values were pooled using a random-effects model. RESULTS: We identified 185 unique articles, yielding 43 articles for analysis. The selected studies covered 5 countries from Asia, 5 countries from Europe, 12 countries from Africa, and 1 from North America, South America, and Australia each. Exponential growth rate model was most favored by researchers. The pooled global R0 was 4.08 (95% CI, 3.09-5.39). The R0 estimates for new and shifting epicenters were comparable or even higher than that for the original epicenter Wuhan, China. CONCLUSIONS: The high R0 values suggest that an extraordinary combination of control measures is needed for halting COVID-19.