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10.2196/19544 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.2196/19544 33900929!8168636!33900929     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       J+Med+Internet+Res 2021 ; 23 (5): e19544 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=33900929|t=2021. Age-Stratified Infection Probabilities Combined With a Quarantine-Modified Model for COVID-19 Needs Assessments: Model Development Study |pdf=|usr=}}{{33900929}} gab.com Text Age-Stratified Infection Probabilities Combined With a Quarantine-Modified Model for COVID-19 Needs Assessments: Model Development Study JO: J Med Internet Res http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33900929 #FOAvip BACKGROUND: Classic compartmental models such as the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model all have the weakness of assuming a homogenous population, where everyone has an equal chance of getting infected and dying. Since it was identified in Hubei, China, in December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly spread around the world and been declared a pandemic. Based on data from Hubei, infection and death distributions vary with age. To control the spread of the disease, various preventive and control measures such as community quarantine and social distancing have been widely used. OBJECTIVE: Our aim is to develop a model where age is a factor, considering the study area's age stratification. Additionally, we want to account for the effects of quarantine on the SEIR model. METHODS: We use the age-stratified COVID-19 infection and death distributions from Hubei, China (more than 44,672 infections as of February 11, 2020) as an estimate or proxy for a study area's infection and mortality probabilities for each age group. We then apply these probabilities to the actual age-stratified population of Quezon City, Philippines, to predict infectious individuals and deaths at peak. Testing with different countries shows the predicted number of infectious individuals skewing with the country's median age and age stratification, as expected. We added a Q parameter to the SEIR model to include the effects of quarantine (Q-SEIR). RESULTS: The projections from the age-stratified probabilities give much lower predicted incidences of infection than the Q-SEIR model. As expected, quarantine tends to delay the peaks for both the exposed and infectious groups, and to "flatten" the curve or lower the predicted values for each compartment. These two estimates were used as a range to inform the local government's planning and response to the COVID-19 threat. CONCLUSIONS: Age stratification combined with a quarantine-modified model has good qualitative agreement with observations on infections and death rates. That younger populations will have lower death rates due to COVID-19 is a fair expectation for a disease where most fatalities are among older adults. Twit Text FOAVip Age-Stratified Infection Probabilities Combined With a Quarantine-Modified Model for COVID-19 Needs Assessments: Model Development Study ????J Med Internet Res http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33900929 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=33900929 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|33900929}}</ref> Age-Stratified Infection Probabilities Combined With a Quarantine-Modified Model for COVID-19 Needs Assessments: Model Development Study #MMPMID33900929 Bongolan VP; Minoza JMA; de Castro R; Sevilleja JE J Med Internet Res 2021[May]; 23 (5): e19544 PMID33900929show ga BACKGROUND: Classic compartmental models such as the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model all have the weakness of assuming a homogenous population, where everyone has an equal chance of getting infected and dying. Since it was identified in Hubei, China, in December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly spread around the world and been declared a pandemic. Based on data from Hubei, infection and death distributions vary with age. To control the spread of the disease, various preventive and control measures such as community quarantine and social distancing have been widely used. OBJECTIVE: Our aim is to develop a model where age is a factor, considering the study area's age stratification. Additionally, we want to account for the effects of quarantine on the SEIR model. METHODS: We use the age-stratified COVID-19 infection and death distributions from Hubei, China (more than 44,672 infections as of February 11, 2020) as an estimate or proxy for a study area's infection and mortality probabilities for each age group. We then apply these probabilities to the actual age-stratified population of Quezon City, Philippines, to predict infectious individuals and deaths at peak. Testing with different countries shows the predicted number of infectious individuals skewing with the country's median age and age stratification, as expected. We added a Q parameter to the SEIR model to include the effects of quarantine (Q-SEIR). RESULTS: The projections from the age-stratified probabilities give much lower predicted incidences of infection than the Q-SEIR model. As expected, quarantine tends to delay the peaks for both the exposed and infectious groups, and to "flatten" the curve or lower the predicted values for each compartment. These two estimates were used as a range to inform the local government's planning and response to the COVID-19 threat. CONCLUSIONS: Age stratification combined with a quarantine-modified model has good qualitative agreement with observations on infections and death rates. That younger populations will have lower death rates due to COVID-19 is a fair expectation for a disease where most fatalities are among older adults. |*Models, Statistical[MESH] |Adult[MESH] |Age Factors[MESH] |COVID-19/diagnosis/*epidemiology/transmission[MESH] |China/epidemiology[MESH] |Female[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Male[MESH] |Needs Assessment[MESH] |Probability[MESH] |Quarantine[MESH]Age-Stratified Infection Probabilities Combined With a Quarantine-Modi(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing