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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 J+Epidemiol+Glob+Health 2021 ; 11 (2): 143-145 Nephropedia Template TP
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Role of Ascertainment Bias in Determining Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 #MMPMID33876593
Smith MP
J Epidemiol Glob Health 2021[Jun]; 11 (2): 143-145 PMID33876593show ga
Case fatality rate (CFR) is used to calculate mortality burden of COVID-19 under different scenarios, thus informing risk-benefit balance of interventions both pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical. However, observed CFR is driven by testing: as more low-risk cases are identified, observed CFR will decline. This report quantifies test bias by modeling observed CFR as log-log-linear function of test density (tests per population) in 163 countries. CFR declined almost 20% (e.g. from 5% to 4%) for each doubling of test density (p < 0.0001); this association did not vary by continent (interaction p > 0.10) although at any given test density CFR was higher in Europe or North America than in Asia or Africa. This effect of test density on observed CFR is adequate to hide all but the largest true differences in case survivorship. Published estimates of CFR should specify test density, and comparisons should correct for it such as by applying the provided model.